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By Alex Kuhn
Sports Editor 

Hear Me Out...Putting the NBA hand-wringing to rest

 

July 7, 2018



Twitter, while certainly frustrating at times, does have plenty of positives. It provides a steady stream of information and news, breaking or otherwise. Offers a positive connection between notable people and their fans. But one of my favorite aspects of the site is the endless supply of hand-wringing and top-shelf hyperbole. This is where Twitter reigns supreme compared to other social media sites.

If you just woke up from a 14-year coma and gave Twitter a go for the first time, you’d think the rapture came and went and Satan’s reign was at its peak or that America was in the middle of a second Civil War while also fighting in WWIII.

There’s a lot of people freaking out all the time on Twitter and Monday we had an all-time great “the sky is falling!” moment.

The biggest moment of the NBA offseason was supposed to be LeBron James moving out west to play for the Lakers. (Called it! And there’s no need to go back and check. In fact, I forbid it…alright, I was wrong and completely whiffed!) But nay! LeBron was upstaged by his nemesis the Golden State Warriors who signed two-time All-NBA center DeMarcus “Boogie” Cousins to a one-year deal worth $5.3 million.

On the surface, this looks terrible for the NBA. The Warriors were already an All-Time great team and now they’re gifted an All-NBA center. How is anyone going to compete with a team that can literally start five All-NBA players?

There were calls for NBA commish Adam Silver’s head, for creating this top-heavy system. People were taking shots at the Warriors for being greedy, Cousins for chasing a ring and that the 2018-19 NBA season should be canceled because we all know who is going to win.

Judging by the reactions to Boogie’s signing you would have thought Trump took over the league or at the very least the Warriors. But let us not fret anymore because the Cousin’s signing is another example of people losing their mind over nothing.

This Chicken Little mentality would be better served if the Warriors were getting the All-NBA center but they’re not, they’re getting damaged goods. Boogie is coming off a ruptured Achilles tendon injury, which has historically altered many NBA careers. The ACL tear used to be the kiss of death for basketball players but with modern medicine, players are coming back without missing a beat. The Achilles injury hasn’t been solved yet. Maybe modern medicine has developed a new procedure to speed up recovery and allow athletes to return closer to form, but that’s yet to be seen.

Of the things Cousins has going for himself is that he’s young, he’s only 28. Typically, this injury hits players near the ends of their careers like Kobe Bryant and Patrick Ewing. Neither of which was the same after returning to court. So there aren’t many comparisons for Cousins with this injury at his size, age and position. Yet, there is one player who is close, that being Elton Brand.

Brand was coming into his own and becoming a force in the NBA when he tore his Achilles during an offseason workout before the ‘07-‘08 season.

Before the injury Brand, playing in 80 games at age 27, was averaging per game 38.5 minutes, 20.5 points, 9.3 rebounds, shot a career-best as a starter .533 percent from the field and played in 80 games. Breaking it down even further, he took 367 shots inside five feet of the rim and made 244 for a 66.5 shooting percentage. From 5-9 feet from the basket he went 127/228 at 55.7 percent and from 15-19 feet from the basket he was 113/281.

Post-Achilles injury Brand’s numbers took a serious hit across the board. His best season came three seasons after the injury during the ‘10-‘11 campaign, playing in 81 games at age 31, he averaged 34.7 minutes, 15 points, 8.3 rebounds and shot .512 percent from the field. Doesn’t seem that bad right? His points and rebounding numbers fell but he’s still shooting in the 50 percent range. Again, let’s look at where his shots were coming from.

Inside five feet from the basket he shot 153/257, 59.5 percent, 5-9 feet he was 93/202, 46 percent, and from 15-19 feet went 88/198 to shoot 44.4 percent.

You see, due to the injury Brand lost his explosiveness and was not as effective inside. He took 136 fewer shots and his percent inside five-feet plummeted 7 percentage points. Here’s Brand in his own words talking about the Achilles injury.

“That Achilles really changed the trajectory of my career. That whole kinetic chain: once you get the calf, it’s the ankle, the knee, the hips, the back. No one’s really recovered from that Achilles injury and come back at the same level. That was really frustrating because I wanted to give Philly more. We made it to the playoffs. I did OK. I had a few serviceable seasons, but I wasn’t the same guy. I still had the atrophy on my left calf — which was my power leg — from that Achilles. And then, quickly, I had a torn labrum right after that. You know, just the injuries, and that happens.”

So the likelihood Cousins returns to his 25.2 points and 12.9 rebound averages for the Warriors in ‘18-‘19 is doubtful. That’s the reason the market for him was so low and the Warriors needing a center after JaVale McGee bolted for the Lakers, pounced on the low-risk, high-reward opportunity.

Cousins does make the Warriors better but only marginally. ESPN’s Zach Lowe wrote the best piece on what Cousins brings to the table for the Warriors. Basically, it came down to defensive rebounding, one of the few weaknesses of the Warriors. But Lowe also pointed out some of the flaws in Boogie’s game and presence might actually hinder the Warriors. Cousins is a good passer out of the post, but he is a turnover machine, averaging five a game last season. The Warriors are sloppy with the ball from time to time and adding Cousins to the mix will add to that.

Cousins is a good defender when he wants to be but in the Warriors system that isn’t going to work, especially if he’s going to be the rim protector. The Golden State offense attracts the headlines but it’s their defense that’s been the key to their dynasty. They’ll be patient with Boogie for so long but if he’s not making the consistent effort on that end of the floor he might only be playing 20 minutes come playoff time.

Then there’s Cousins’ locker room presence. Depending on the player he’s either an amazing teammate or one of the worst ever with little in between. Factor in the Warriors locker room drama this past season and Boogie just might be what topples this dynasty.

In all seriousness though, I hope Boogie is a positive influence for the Warriors, learns what it takes to be a championship and then brings that winning mentality to whoever offers him a big contract next season. It’ll only make the league strong and that much better.

Golden State didn’t ruin the NBA either, they were a heavy favorite to three-peat before signing Cousins at +140 while the next closest team were the Rockets at +250. After the signing, they jumped to +105 and the Rockets went to +400.

Odds are the Warriors will three-peat but as we’ve seen in sports nothing is guaranteed. Golden State has been remarkably lucky when it comes to injury, and let’s not forget Houston came within one game and 27 missed 3-pointers (27! Still mindboggling!) from dethroning them. Out East you have the Boston Celtics and Philadelphia 76ers that can push the Warriors, more than likely the Celtics, if healthy. The Sixers still don’t have an athletic guard on their roster.

For all the hand-wringing, I do love how the Warriors started as everyone’s darling franchise and in four quick years turned into the Empire from “Star Wars.” Oh, here’s a better pop culture reference, the Warriors are the Walter White of the NBA. In “Breaking Bad” Walter White starts off as a down on his luck, nice guy but slowly turns evil as he is consumed by becoming a meth kingpin.

The Warriors will not run roughshod over the league, they’re going to be pushed. There is plenty of NBA history where super teams are assembled, everyone crowning them in July and August and them falling short in the playoffs or Finals.

 
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