Northern Wyoming News - Serving the Big Horn Basin for over 100 years

The most courageous 2018-19 NFL season predictions: The Bums

By ALEX KUHN

Sports Editor

The NFL season is right around the corner and it is time to release the most courageous predictions for the 2018-19 season. 

Coming up with these predictions is unbelievably complex, there's a ton of research, firing from the hip, interviews, gut-feelings and running simulations through ridiculously advanced computers. These computers are so advanced, Elon Musk has made a few calls asking if he could borrow them to use for one of his talks about a theoretically awesome hyper tube or his castle in the sky. But I shot him down and said these ridiculously advanced computers are only for NFL season predictions.

With the ridiculously advanced computers at my disposal and my natural NFL intuition I was able to breakdown all 32 NFL teams and figure exactly how their seasons will play out. The margin for error on these predictions is 100 percent, but the significance of that number is not important. 

A note, I decided to mix it up this year. In years past this was a two-parter, starting with the NFC, going division by division, then repeating the process with the AFC and offering playoff teams and Super Bowl winners. 

This year I'm expanding it to a three-parter, this week will be the bums of the league, next week are the Jeff Fisher Zone teams and near playoff teams and the final week are the playoff teams along with playoff predictions. 

I'm also including each team's over/under win totals for the season, which I pulled from oddsshark.com, they'll be in parentheses next to the team's name. At the end of each team capsule will be the team's best fantasy player and a player to avoid.

The Bums will be separated into three categories; the top five picks for the 2019 draft (the five worst teams in the league), three quarter teams (teams that can hang for at least three quarters) and the disappointments (teams that will not meet their high expectations). 

THE TOP 5 PICKS IN THE 2019 DRAFT

NO. 1 BUFFALO BILLS (6.5)

Ridiculously advanced computer prediction: 3-13

The Bills 2017-18 season could best be summed up by the movie "Major League." You had a front office desperate to tank but the men in the locker room refused to give in and instead made the playoffs.

The Bills first postseason appearance since 1999 was one of last season's feel good moments. There's that terrific video of the Bills locker room when they began to celebrate after the Bengals downed the Ravens on a last-minute play, allowing for Buffalo to sneak into the sixth and final playoff seed. 

But much like "Major League II," the follow up to the Bills '17-18 season is going to suuuuuuuuucck. The front office did a much better job of blowing up their roster in the offseason and have guaranteed themselves a top three pick in the draft.

Helping with the tanking, their opening four games are absolutely brutal. Week 1 is at Baltimore, Week 2 vs. the LA Chargers, Week 3 at the Minnesota and Week 4 at Green Bay. Those are four potential playoff teams with three of them being Super Bowl contenders. The Bills are starting 0-4.

My mom is a Bills fan so I've always rooted for them and with UW's Josh Allen suiting up for them that just adds to my rooting interest.

The hope is they don't ruin Allen, but the likely hood of them doing so it very high. When they start 0-4 there's going to be calls to bench AJ McCarron and bring in the rookie but I'm crossing my fingers that the front office sticks to their tank job. Allen needs a year of polish before assuming the reins. 

It's not related to the Bills season but it was a conflicting moment when Allen was called "trash" by Jags DB Jalen Ramsey. I'm rooting for Allen because that helps UW but Ramsey plays on my favorite team. So, I'm kind of stuck and can't take a side, I imagine this is what parenthood is going feel like when two sons get in a fight.

Best fantasy player: Bills D/ST (There's not much to choice from)

Fantasy stay away: RB LeSean McCoy

NO. 2 TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS (6.5)

Ridiculously advanced computer prediction: 4-12

I'm done with the Bucs and I'm done with Jameis Winston. 

The Bucs should have made the leap into playoff contenders last season but instead they regressed. Now it looks like a rebuild is just around the corner. NFC South is probably the league's best division with the Panthers, Saints and Falcons all being a playoff contenders and the Bucs will be a quick W for those three. 

Depending on how you feel about the new and improved Bears or Browns teams, an 0-6 or 0-8 start is within play for Tampa. They open at New Orleans (L), home against Philly (L), home against Pittsburgh (L), at Chicago (L), bye week, at Atlanta (L), home against Cleveland (toss-up) and at Cincinnati (L). Their season could be wrapped by October 21. 

As for Winston, I know the red flags were there before but I thought he'd learn from his mistakes. And, admittedly, I fell for his natural leadership skills that we saw on "Hard Knocks." After his latest incident in which he groped a female Uber driver, I'm moving on.

While not as bad as his off the field decisions, Winston's on the field play is been lackluster and a disappointment. Last year he regressed and this year is the make or break season.

Best fantasy player: WR Mike Evans

Fantasy stay away: QB Jameis Winston

NO. 3 OAKLAND RAIDERS (8)

Ridiculously advanced computer prediction: 4-12

I am no Raider fan but I am absolutely ecstatic Jon Gruden is out of the MNF booth and back on the sideline. Getting him off MNF is a win for every football fan. He was by far the worst MNF color guy I've had to experience. Give me Dennis Miller over Gruden any day of the week. He said nothing during his nine seasons in the booth and loved every single QB that was on that night.

The other reason I'm glad Gruden is back, is gambling. Betting against Gruden seems like a sure fire way to make money this season. Gruden's return reminds me of when Phil Jackson took over the New York Knicks. Even though the NBA was largely a space and pace league, Jackson thought bring back the obsolete triangle offense. It didn't go well and Jackson was run out of New York in a few years.

Gruden wants to bring the NFL back to 1998, he's not going to adapt to today's game but instead make today's game adapt to him. It's going to be a disaster and I can't wait to watch as he trades away Derrick Carr for Case Keenum, then signs Nathan Peterman for way too much money as a backup, benches Keenum after Week 3 of the 2019-20 season, starts Peterman for six games, then goes back to Keenum for the rest of the season. From then on he'll have a rotating door of QB's until he's fired and he'll complain about the NFL being too different and/or calls it the No Football League.

Best fantasy player: WR Amari Cooper

Fantasy stay away: RB Marshawn Lynch

NO. 4 TENNESSEE TITANS (8)

Ridiculously advanced computer prediction: 5-11

The Titans over performed last year by making the divisional round of the playoffs, thanks in part to Jacksonville tanking in their Week 17 matchup and Andy Reid going Andy Reid in their Wildcard matchup. 

They're a lock for playoff team that's going to come crashing back to Earth. The Titans and Bills were the only two playoff teams to have a negative point differential (Titans -22, Bills -57). Typically, that's an indicator that they were extremely lucky in one score games, the Titans were 6-4 in games decided by seven points or less and had the NFL's second easiest schedule.

The Titans have two games against the Jags and two against a healthy Texans team. That feels like four losses right there and if Colts QB Andrew Luck returns to form they're going 0-6 in the AFC South. Then chalk up the games against the NFC East as losses as well. Tennessee's only chances at wins are against the AFC East teams not name the Patriots.

The addition of Deion Lewis is frightening and he's going to be the only Titan that I'll be afraid this year.

Best fantasy player: RB Deion Lewis

Fantasy stay away: QB Marcus Mariota

NO. 5 INDIANAPOLIS COLTS (6.5)

Ridiculously advanced computer prediction: 5-11

The Colts of the '10s are a great NFL case study in what not to do when you draft a once in a generation QB talent.

Ever since Indy took Luck in 2012 they've been "trying" to work on the offensive line. I put trying in quotes because they never spent good money to shore up their O-line. They'd always talk about protecting Luck and say the mission for the [insert any year after 2012] offseason was to find him better protection, but they never followed through on it. Essentially, the Colts were the Elon Musk of the NFL. Always talking about what they want to do but never really putting it to action.

The Colts have also failed to surround Luck with playmakers as they did with their previous franchise cornerstone, Peyton Manning. The best RB Luck has had is Frank Gore and while Gore is a national treasure, Luck played with him at the end of his prime. The WRs he's had to throw to have been below average as well. T.Y. Hilton has been the best Colt WR and outside that it's been a very lackluster group, excluding Reggie Wayne and Andre Johnson but both were at the end of their careers when playing with Luck.

The fortunate thing for the Colts, this season is they have no chance at making the playoffs. So their time can be spent by getting Luck back into the flow of things, after missing all of 2017, and securing the highest draft pick possible.

Best fantasy player: QB Andrew Luck

Fantasy stay away: Any Indy RB

THREE QUARTER TEAMS

 CINCINNATI BENGALS (6.5)

Ridiculously advanced computer prediction: 6-10

Marvin Lewis is back! That doesn't seem correct, how about this...

Marvin Lewis is back? Nah, that seems mean...

Marvin Lewis is back. Perfect!

Lewis is the longest tenured NFL coach and while that's normally something to celebrate, it's tough to do so in this instance. Bengals owner Mike Brown is notoriously cheap and firing him would cost money, so it feels like Lewis has been there by default.

It may seem like I don't like Lewis but I actually think he's one of the better coaches in the league. In fact, before the Jags decided to keep Doug Marrone I was hoping Shad Khan would make a deal for Lewis.

I know Lewis hasn't won a playoff game (0-7) but he's done quite a bit during his time in Cincy. He works with a cheap owner and still has found ways to win. Maybe he does bring in too many of the undesirable/heavy baggage players, but even that's commendable because he's trying to help turn these guys lives around.

The Bengals will be competitive this season but I don't think they'll be able to hang with the playoff teams like they have in the past. They'll be able to push some good teams, might even take a game from the Ravens or Steelers, yet overall they just don't have that "It" factor to push them over the edge.

I will say this and I know I'm hedging here, if the Cincy offense stays healthy, they could be the surprise team of 2018. But a Bengal team staying healthy is as rare as a winning Browns team.

Best fantasy player: WR AJ Green

Fantasy stay away: RB Joe Mixon

SEATTLE SEAHAWKS (8)

Ridiculously advanced computer prediction: 6-10

I liked what the Seahawks did this season. They were at a crossroads, do they keep the aging and expensive defense or focus on their franchise QB Russell Wilson? They chose correctly by dismantling their D and rebuilding it through the draft. Then put extra money and draft picks into the offense because franchise QBs are what keep you relevant.

Along with the Colts the Seahawks have been a train wreck at protecting their prized player. Since entering the league Wilson has been the most sacked player, an average of 41.3 per year. I don't think he's had a season where he wasn't running for his life as soon as the ball was snapped. He's the first QB I've seen take a five-step drop while in shotgun.

Even with the constant pressure Wilson has found a way to become one of the elite QBs in the league. The 'Hawks did bring in a new offensive line coach to correct the ineffectiveness of that unit. This could be the season we get to see what Wilson with time to throw will looks like.

Even if the offense performs well this team is still a season away from being a contender. They just had too much turnover on defense and the NFC West is going to be sneaky competitive. Seattle will likely surge toward the end of the season but they'll struggle at the start.

Best fantasy player: QB Russell Wilson

Fantasy stay away: WR Doug Baldwin

THE DISAPPOINTMENTS

CAROLINA PANTHERS (8.5) 

Ridiculously advanced computer prediction: 7-9

The Panthers are a prime example of how quickly championship windows can close in this league. That Super Bowl appearance two years ago feels like it happened decades ago, and the highlights could be watched on a grainy 8mm.

One minute they're looking as a top Super Bowl contender and the next they're a fringe playoff team. I even forgot they made the playoffs last year.

Carolina is the third best team in the NFC South, one of the best divisions in the NFL.

They still have Cam Newton under center but I don't think that does it this season. A drop off feels like a certainty with this group. Maybe new OC Norv Turner finds a way to bring Newton's game to the next level and that seems to be the only path to making the playoffs. If not, the Panthers will hang around most the season but a late season dip causes them to miss the playoffs.

Best fantasy player: QB Cam Newton

Fantasy stay away: RB Christian McCaffrey

NEW YORK GIANTS (7)

Ridiculously advanced computer prediction: 9-7

There's a lot of optimism surrounding the Giants with talks of a being a dark horse Super Bowl contender. I'm not buying it.

It might sound weird to say a team that went 3-13 last season and is predicted to go 9-7 for this campaign is going to be a disappointment, but just wait. They'll be in the driver's seat for a playoff spot in November at 7-4 and ESPN and FS1 will talk about "how dangerous the G-Men will be in January." There will be a steady plume of smoke being blown up their butts. But in their final six games they're going to go 2-4 and miss the playoffs by one lousy game. In fact, their regular season finale against the Cowboys will be the L that keeps them out of the playoffs. Then we'll hear nothing but whining and complaining from Giant fans and it will be beautiful.

Speaking of whining and complaining, the Giants Week 1 matchup vs. Jacksonville is must watch TV. Eli Manning clapped back at Jalen Ramsey for saying Manning is nothing without Odell Beckham Jr., during Ramsey's scorched earth interview with GQ. When reporters asked Manning about Ramsey he brushed it off at first, but after taking a few deep breaths with his mouth wide open, he responded by saying "Who?" Manning is guaranteed to throw three picks and they'll get routed against the Jags, Ramsey will have one of those picks. Manning will then hear a relentless stream of trash talk from Ramsey.

After the beatdown, Manning is going to complain about Ramsey and say something along the lines, "That's not how football should be played" or "That's not what this game is about" and I'll be cackling like a madman through the whole press conference.

You brought it on yourself Eli.

Best fantasy player: RB Saquon Barkley

Fantasy Bust: TE Ivan Ingram